Value Investing.

[zacb]

Any thoughts on investing this market? To me, it seems like there has never been a better time to invest. Materials and natural resources look interest in in particular. Also, some growth stocks look attractive at these levels. Any thoughts?

[droid]

I'm actually trying to short the Dow or Nasdaq but those ETF's like dog or sqqq etc have a nasty slippage that doesn't allow for medium/long term holding.
I'm waiting for gold to go below $900 but i don't think it will happen before the stock market correction. Difficult.

Some medium-term oil should be good too. I was at (-)$3000 in assets back in 2000. I KNEW oil was at a bottom (at cost) but couldn't do anything about it lol.

[Rock]

Any thoughts on investing this market? To me, it seems like there has never been a better time to invest. Materials and natural resources look interest in in particular. Also, some growth stocks look attractive at these levels. Any thoughts?

Explain why you feel that way. That's a very strong statement. Value investing is about buying assets at discounts to their intrinsic value. So you believe certain assets are currently priced lower relative to their real value (long term expected discounted cashflows) than ever before. What is your reasoning (calculations and logic) behind that sentiment? Very intrigued!

[Moretorque]

One thing to consider when investing in anything for profit is our rulers have unlimited money to manipulate manipulate and then some and they do. It's all a real tough call because the whole system is rigged top to bottom.

Mao Tae Sung said power grows out of the barrel of a gun so guns n ammo would be a safe bet long term. Why do you think the elite own the military industrial complex because they know this first hand. How did they get to be so powerful?

[droid]

I just found this oil-tracking ETF called 'UCO', that has a 200% leverage. I could put a few grand in this. I see a potential of quadrupling the investment.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=uco&ei= ... sQeQrIHQDQ
When it comes to oil and gold, the fundamentals are always sound; in the sense that they should always return to their mean value eventually. Any thoughts are welcome of course.
(**Disclaimer: I'm not responsible for what you do).

[Moretorque]

I think they plan on doing a gold backed currency out of China for the new reserve currency , both gold and silver are great bets and oil will be going up big too. America is ground 0 for the implosion when it happens so make sure you are prepped with survival plans before you try and profit from the coming crash.

I could care less about trying to profit from what is coming, I have this hope humanity will grow up and we will unite and start repairing the ECO system and forget about the stuff that does not matter.

[Rock]

I just found this oil-tracking ETF called 'UCO', that has a 200% leverage. I could put a few grand in this. I see a potential of quadrupling the investment.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=uco&ei= ... sQeQrIHQDQ
When it comes to oil and gold, the fundamentals are always sound; in the sense that they should always return to their mean value eventually. Any thoughts are welcome of course.
(**Disclaimer: I'm not responsible for what you do).

Well the long term (say 10 or 15 year) mean levels of both gold and oil are lower than the current respective spot prices. So if they are to return to longer term mean value, then the prices are set to fall more.

[droid]

I'm was thinking more about something within a year or two.

-Gold should get to 700 long term but should approach 900 medium term IMO.
-Oils'long term mean seems like 50+ to me (unless we're looking at a different graph) so i'ts not far from it already anyways.

My main point about the fundamentals is that oil and gold break-even production costs are known ($450 and $40 respectively, roughly), making it easy to know the lows and highs absolutely, coupled with a self regulating mechanism of demand/production (cheaper prices in turn increase demand etc, higher prices increase production).
Whereas a tech or manufacturing stock depends more on abstract intangible stuff like innovation, consumer trends etc.
I'm no guru though.

[Rock]

I'm was thinking more about something within a year or two.

-Gold should get to 700 long term but should approach 900 medium term IMO.
-Oils'long term mean seems like 50+ to me (unless we're looking at a different graph) so i'ts not far from it already anyways.

My main point about the fundamentals is that oil and gold break-even production costs are known ($450 and $40 respectively, roughly), making it easy to know the lows and highs absolutely, coupled with a self regulating mechanism of demand/production (cheaper prices in turn increase demand etc, higher prices increase production).
Whereas a tech or manufacturing stock depends more on abstract intangible stuff like innovation, consumer trends etc.
I'm no guru though.

Well current spot price of gold is at around $1,220 so you are predicting a 26% drop in the medium term and a 43% drop in the longer term. So why is your tone so bullish on gold? You sound a bit bonkers lol.

And how did you get those figures anyway? Just pull em' out of your hat or are they mean levels for a certain period?

[droid]

I'm not bullish on gold, on the contrary, i'm saying it should go further down. Again, because extraction costs are $450-600 an ounce more or less
Edit: To clarify, I'm "bullish", but i sound "bearish" as I fish for a low.

https://www.explorationinsights.com/peb ... relid=3443
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/what-is ... ning-gold/

I say more or less because it does not really matter much when gold hits $1900, you KNOW it must come down, as I called out the day before in aug 2011. The rationale is that the greater the price, the more mining is incentivized and then this catches up IMO. Likewise, when the price is low (at cost) mines are stopped and then the price should go up later.
I'm bullish in the sense that if you know where to buy low, your bet is "bullish" of course.

Yeah I kind of pulled the numbers out of my hat, but I also like to look at Bollinger bands to see when the line pierces the low-side mean. These type of lines are the most compatible with my thoughts. Although like someone else said, technical-analysis is useful to let you believe whatever you want to believe Lol.

Like I said, I'm not trying to pass for a fancy trader or something, it's just interesting stuff.

[Moretorque]

Don't you guy's think playing in the paper market is risky? I mean come on for every real ounce of silver n gold they have issued 100 or more in paper. I can see playing the paper market game if you are a insider but these guys have all the markets rigged world wide with their play money.

People act like there are fundamentals at work here of real functioning markets and the only real fundamentals at play are the states ability to manipulate and shift wealth to themselves as well as plug holes to keep the pyramid acting like it is alive and functioning as a real market system with their fake checkbook credits.

It's like Jim Willie says, he pays absolutely no attention to the mainstream markets because they are completely rigged and just buys real gold in hand because he knows our rulers can only keep the illusion of prices being down so long before the real commodity explodes upward in real purchasing power but if you are in paper they will pay you in debased paper if you try and get the real gold.

[xiongmao]

There's a huge opportunity in big oil when the oil price bottoms... but wait for that bottom.

My stock investments are mostly in covered call funds - they yield 6-8% right now.

I've got into P2P platforms in a big way this year. My favourites right now are Funding Secure and Ablrate. Funding Secure gives asset secured loans against high value items (rich people's stuff) and Ablrate finances aircraft loans. The former yields 13%, the latter 10%.

But in 2015 I will be WARY. When the price of a major asset like oil halves, there will be consequences. Somewhere.

[fschmidt]

Value investing doesn't work in manipulated markets, at least as long as the manipulations are working. This means that you must be very patient to value invest. Don't expect any returns for at least 5 years. This is my approach. Any investing that is shorter than 5 years should ignore real value and instead second guess the manipulations of central bankers who currently run the world. In the long run, the manipulations will fail, but it will take a while.

[Moretorque]

The ? becomes how over valued are the markets they have rigged, we know gold and silver are way way under valued but everything else seems to be rigged up. Nobody has ever amassed the power over the world markets like they have now.

It took them a long time to do it to this degree and we are waiting for the dumb herd to figure out why money needs to be tied to real agreements by the producers and the purchasing tickets for the economies need real auditing by the sheople but the sheep be dumb and our rulers figured it long ago.


!