MarcosZeitola wrote:.....This gives China easy access to the Spratly Islands, and eventually, the Philippines as a whole. As much as I dislike American politics, I am grateful for America's naval and military presence in the region. For the sake of balance, China must not be allowed to take over the entirety of Asia. It's a fragile balance, but a balance nonetheless.
I don't see all-out war happening any time soon, if ever. But every inch you give the Chinese, they'll take a meter. Every hand extended costs you your arm.
China has disputes with many countries along its borders. It claims from India a large land which it calls South Tibet (Arunachal Pradesh) but no Chinese was ever living there. China is not ashamed to claim even a small piece of land from tiny Bhutan. There are Chinese claims as far as to Indonesia, far South of Vietnam, claims from Malaysia and Brunei etc.
Some few disputes are settled, like those with Russia, but many others are without any solution.
China will not invade Philippines of course, but it will take away slowly and little by little almost all of its access to the Western side of its sea coast and will take out all resources and fishery grounds, as near as maybe only 7 to 20 miles from the Philippine main islands.
A frightening, catastrophic situation for the Philippines.
Philippines with its ill-equipped military, with half of them busy with internal fighting against Muslims, Communists and other subversive groups has nothing what it can do to stop them.
For China to take away sea territory from Philippines is an easy and lucrative military action.
Taiwan remains a special case.
China demands also sea territory from South Korea (Socotra Rock, 245 km to China, 149 km to South Korea. )
Vietnamese can be hard fighters, but they have not much what you can call a navy.
The only country in this region, which is not defenseless against China, except South Korea, is Japan.
It is not possible to enter Japan without being noticed immediately and stopped by air force and navy.
The Chinese military tries to provoke the Japanese military almost every day, sometimes even several times every day.
Even without considering US-presence however, the Japanese defense is not weak.
There is the Coastguard, about 13000 people with 460 ships and 75 aircrafts and the Navy with 46000 people, 115 ships and about 340 aircraft, there is the Airforce with 45000 people and 770 airplanes, and the Ground Force with about 150000 people + 30000 reserve with about 5000 various vehicles and about 500 small aircrafts. There are also large production facilities for military supply in Japan, all in all not so much, but also not so little.
I think in future Japan will have to supply some military related materials to Philippines and also to Vietnam, more or less for free.
There are plenty of old ships around and otherwise military supply which nobody in Japan needs here anymore.
Also South Korea agreed to send some materials and old ships etc. to Philippines.
About USA, I wonder if you can trust them - not really is my opinion. It's a game, sometimes with and sometimes against China with very little consideration for all those small nations around China in Far East and South East Asia.
