Are restrictions on meeting with people justified?

[yick]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... y-row.html

Sobering start to 2021: US records 2,051 new COVID deaths and hospitalizations hit more than 100,000 for the 31st day in a row - as health officials warn post-Christmas surge will get worse and California ICU beds only open up when a patient dies

At least 125,057 patients are currently hospitalized with coronavirus in the US as of late Friday, exceeding 125,000 for the third consecutive day

Another 160,606 new infections were confirmed for January 1, bringing the nationwide count to 20,128,693

Full article click on the link above!

They're an utter disgrace, Yohan. Kids behave better.

[mattyman]

@ yick

you haven't said a single word about your covid experience but been nasty to anyone who doesn't agree with you. I suggest you talk about your experiences or make a post. Maybe calm down a bit before you post.

[yick]

@ yick

you haven't said a single word about your covid experience but been nasty to anyone who doesn't agree with you. I suggest you talk about your experiences or make a post. Maybe calm down a bit before you post.

Shut up you silly old woman. I am telling you shit.

[Yohan]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... y-row.html

Sobering start to 2021: US records 2,051 new COVID deaths and hospitalizations hit more than 100,000 for the 31st day in a row - as health officials warn post-Christmas surge will get worse and California ICU beds only open up when a patient dies

At least 125,057 patients are currently hospitalized with coronavirus in the US as of late Friday, exceeding 125,000 for the third consecutive day

Another 160,606 new infections were confirmed for January 1, bringing the nationwide count to 20,128,693

Full article click on the link above!

They're an utter disgrace, Yohan. Kids behave better.

Here in Japan everywhere people are very disciplined since months - however you cannot take away all fun from them during 2020/2021 New Year, for sure you cannot do that in the large cities with millions of people living in narrow rooms - all cities shorten the celebration time, shorten the restaurants opening times, no trains or bus services past midnight... but... see what happened in the typical shopping and entertainment places in Tokyo. Everybody out, also temples and shrines were overcrowded....
These pictures speak for themselves.

Tokyo-Ueno-Ameyokocho 30/Dec/2020
https://socom.yokohama/news/37769/

Tokyo-Shibuya 01/Jan/2021
https://socom.yokohama/news/37775/

Unfortunately, as expected, since about one week many thousands of people living in the larger cities reported severe health problems and were admitted to hospitals, all covid-19 reserved beds in every clinic in Tokyo, in any nearby province of Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka and Fukuoka are now occupied, some hospitals in Tokyo are overcrowded with covid-19 patients near to 300 % of their capacity.

A terrible situation for all medical staff at this moment in the large cities, however in smaller Japanese provinces and rural areas there is no problem at all, not such a huge population density.

Nevertheless, number of infected people is far lower in Japan than in Western countries...

Japan today -
PCR confirmed cases total 286,414 - deaths 4059

Italy today (population half of Japan)
confirmed cases 2,276,491 - deaths 78,755

Unbelievable!
And still some ignorant people are telling us, covid-19 is nothing but a hoax...

[mattyman]

I think in Japan's case, part of the explanation of deaths and severe illness could be partly explained by mataolic health. Don't the Japanese have lower rates of obesity and diabetes than the likes of the USA and UK. Isn't obesity and diabetes one of the known risk factors for severe illness and death from covid?

I see population density is a big factor, that can certainly affect transmission and case loads.

Also 'cases'; positive PCR test results vs. a diagnosis of SARS COVI 2? The media NEVER makes that clear.

@ Yohan, you're only quoting numbers without context. What about excess mortality from ALL causes?

SARS-COVID-2 is not a hoax, just because some doesn't agree with the policies responding to it doesn't mean they're denying it or don't acknowledge it (should have put this in a disclaimer).

[Yohan]

Don't the Japanese have lower rates of obesity and diabetes than the likes of the USA and UK

I see population density is a big factor, that can certainly affect transmission and case loads.

Also 'cases'; positive PCR test results vs. a diagnosis of SARS COVI 2? The media NEVER makes that clear.

@ Yohan, you're only quoting numbers without context. What about excess mortality from ALL causes?

Japanese people are also overweight, there are exact data about health of the Japanese population available as all Japanese (and long-stay foreigners too) have national health insurance and free yearly medical checkups, the results are collected in a data base for all Japan.

So far those data indicate that about 20 to 25 percent of all Japanese have a BMI higher than 25 - however to show up with a BMI higher than 30 is rare, less than 2 percent.

The Japanese recommended normal weight is BMI 23 as Japanese (especially older people) tend to be much shorter and slimmer than white or black people by US (international) standard.

Japanese however have a serious problem with underweight, mostly young women who are obsessed with diet and showing up with a BMI under 18. Underweight Japanese are about 15 percent and it is always pointed out by medical doctors that underweight is at least as dangerous as overweight.

-----------------

Mortality excess? We don't have that here in Japan. The number of deaths is about the same each month if you compare 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Japan has about 1.38 million deaths per year, and so far only 4,343 deaths are clearly considered as covid-19 related since Feb. 2020, that's only 0.3 percent of the total number of deaths.

About cases confirmed as Covid-19 infected: Only designated hospitals have the permission to treat covid-19 infected patients and all of them are several times PCR tested before being confirmed to be infected with covid-19.
Those hospitals have the duty to report every infected patient to the provincial office and to the national health insurance agency.

Today's data are: Totally since Feb. 2020: PCR confirmed cases 309,834
Fully recovered since Feb. 2020: 238,620
https://www.stopcovid19.jp

About the place where I am living (Okayama province about 2 million people)
Total patients infected, confirmed since Feb. 2020: 2002 person
deaths: 15
in hospital, ICU, life threatening condition: 9
released and left hospital/quarantine after full recovery: 1241
the others are still in quarantine hotels, or in hospital care but doing well or are positive but do not feel to be sick.
https://okayama.stopcovid19.jp

----

No covid-19 vaccine can be used to ordinary population by law without testing it in research facilities within Japan.
For political reason, Chinese and Russian vaccine is in general rejected by the government but also by the huge majority of the Japanese population.

There is no date from Japanese authorities about permission of vaccination of covid-19, but plenty of vaccination activity is going on now of seasonal influenza and pneumonia in Japan.

No covid-19 vaccination is expected for the general population up to April 2021 in Japan.

Experience in hospitals so far shows that if you catch influenza and/or pneumonia AND covid-19 about the same time, you are getting really seriously sick over many weeks, often life-threatening.

So far I never heard about any resistance of Japanese people against vaccination of influenza and pneumonia. Many apply for these shots all the time, no shortage of vaccine, available everywhere in Japan, influenza for free, pneumonia against a small fee.

-----------------------------------------

Covid-19 for itself - without any other medical issues or very high age - is not a life-threatening condition, but it infects quickly other people nearby and is a serious additional work task for hospitals and their staff.

In all Japan there are now 65,759 patients with acut infection under medical observation. Most of them in the large cities, significantly less in smaller cities with less population density (like in my place in Okayama) and convid-19 is almost not existent in rural provinces.

Some hospitals in Tokyo are operating 300 % over their capacity.

However for example little known rural province of Shimane (not so far from Okayama city on the Western side facing Korea, 700.000 people) recorded only 230 infections, and 214 already recovered. Only 16 acut cases, and 95 percent (325 beds) in isolation units are empty - no patients.
So far, nobody died of covid-19, despite its rural people are all rather old.

[flowerthief00]

Whether or not social restrictions are justified, ever since 1000 US medical workers told us that it was okay to assemble and protest in large numbers as long as the cause was for social justice, it became harder to take them seriously.

[mattyman]

RE YOhan; so there's no mortality excess due to covid SARS COV 2 in Japan. That's encouraging news.

RE obesity; BMI >25 is the threshold for overweight, BMI >30 is obesity BMI >40 is morbidly obese. In the UK 60% of the population has a BMI >25, over 30% has a BMI >30. The UK is worse than Japan, America worse still.

A better measure might be waist to height ratio.

The PCR test, there's lost of doubts about it's validity. I might make a post about that another time.

RE vaccination;

in the UK they're rolling out the Pfizer/BIONTech vaccine, even though tests are not complete. There's reports from Norway that Elderly people have died from the vaccine.

I think untested vaccines being trialed on the population without consent is bordering criminal. This is a topic for another post.

[Yohan]

RE YOhan; so there's no mortality excess due to covid SARS COV 2 in Japan. That's encouraging news.

This is correct, there is no difference of the number of deaths in Japan (and South Korea too) with or without covid-19 if you compare month for month of 2018, 2019 and 2020.
In Japan during 2020 the number of deaths was 1.37 million people and only approx. 4000 were confirmed to be directly covid-19 related, about 0.3 percent.

RE obesity; BMI >25 is the threshold for overweight, BMI >30 is obesity BMI >40 is morbidly obese. In the UK 60% of the population has a BMI >25, over 30% has a BMI >30. The UK is worse than Japan, America worse still.

A better measure might be waist to height ratio.

Both is used and registered in Japanese data concerning the yearly health check. BMI, waist and height.
For white/black people waist max. is 100 cm, for Japanese 85 cm.

The PCR test, there's lost of doubts about it's validity. I might make a post about that another time.

You can say the same about testing for example PSA for prostate cancer.
It is not longer for free in Japan, you have to pay for it if you really want to know your PSA value, it's cheap however.
Too many wrong positive and negative results.

The problem with PCR covid-19 testing. it is very expensive, not really fully developed, but it is the only test I know which reacts only to covid-19 and not to seasonal flu.

There is of course research going on within Japanese medical electronic companies to improve or develop some better diagnosis tools.

RE vaccination;
in the UK they're rolling out the Pfizer/BIONTech vaccine, even though tests are not complete. There's reports from Norway that Elderly people have died from the vaccine.
I think untested vaccines being trialed on the population without consent is bordering criminal. This is a topic for another post.

I would not call them 'untested vaccines', they were tested before with 40.000 or more people, but time is too short for deep-in research.
However so far about 40 million doses were distributed and how many people report any serious problem about those vaccines?

UK is a chaos place, no consequent working - one politician is for it, the other one is against it and so on.

Here in Japan laws are clear about it - every vaccine has to be tested after import directly in Japan again and after if possible, it will produced in licence within Japan by Japanese drug makers - the problem however, it takes time to arrange this, several months, to verify research data from abroad and there is a lot of paperwork to get finally the permission to use it in Japan.

Therefore at this moment there is no vaccine against covid-19 in Japan available.

Important is maybe the observation that covid-19 alone is annoying for patients and medical staff, but there are few deaths, usually only very old people. The situation is however quickly changing to life-threatening, if a patient is infected about the same time not only with covid-19, but with seasonal (harmless) flu and/or pneumonia too.

As there is a huge amount of flu and pneumonia vaccine on the Japanese market, it is now given for free (flu) or small fee (pneumonia) to everybody who wants that vaccination. -

Most anti-vaxxers in Japan are against use of Chinese/Russian vaccine only, more of political reason - also the Japanese government and the Japanese pharma industry are not really Chinese/Russian friendly and such offers coming from China/Russia so far were all rejected.

At this moment Japan considers licence production of Pfizer/Moderna vaccine, produced in Switzerland/Germany and in future in Japan too.
I don't expect any general covid-19 vaccination in Japan before end of March 2021.

It will be for free, this is decided already - however nobody in Japan will be forced into covid-19 vaccination of course.

[mattyman]

RE Yohan
"I would not call them 'untested vaccines', they were tested before with 40.000 or more people, but time is too short for deep-in research.
However so far about 40 million doses were distributed and how many people report any serious problem about those vaccines?"
I won't be taking the vaccine until I know what the side effects are. Vaccines take years. I'm not against vaccines as a solution, I am against coercion.

Vaccines can be part of the solution to any epidemic. It's important not to pressurize or coerce the population to taking it. Clinically-vulnerable people are recommended. People who're uncomfortable shouldn't be forced to or threatened with losing their jobs (that's coercion). Just because you have concerns doesn't make you 'anti-vax'.

It's good that Japan is considering LICENSING production of vaccines, that's a step I want to see.

I have a better idea; focused protection; I think people;

• Who're over 60 should work from home, or be given the option of furlough for 3 months if that's not an option

• People who're clinically-vulnerable* under that age should also work from home or be given the option of furlough for 3 months if former is not an option

• Working people living in households with either of the above groups should working from home or be given 3 month furloughs if the former is not an option

Same measures as original lockdowns, but more targeted. This could go a long way to preventing clinically-vulnerable people.

Who are the clinically-vulnerable groups?*
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ronavirus/

I have to post the link for all the repliers that are likely to notice.

The title of the post is "are restrictions justified?". I hope this gets thinking caps on.

[Yohan]

RE Yohan
....
I won't be taking the vaccine until I know what the side effects are. Vaccines take years. I'm not against vaccines as a solution, I am against coercion.
....
It's good that Japan is considering LICENSING production of vaccines, that's a step I want to see.
....
...Who're over 60 should work from home, or be given the option of furlough for 3 months if that's not an option

The title of the post is "are restrictions justified?". I hope this gets thinking caps on.

In Japan there are relatively not so many infections and by far less deaths than in Northern America and Europe.

There will be no covid-19 vaccine up to end of April/ start maybe after first week of May 2021 in Japan

It takes time to adjust production lines for this kind of vaccine and to receive permission to use it with ordinary citizens.

There is also a lack of storage facilities in Japan in many hospitals to deal with such a huge amount of this kind of vaccine, and more than 20.000 deep freezer units are now produced and distributed to hospitals.

To work from home is often impossible, not everybody is an office worker, but anyway there is no restriction to go out in all Japan, to visit department stores or restaurants or to go to a cinema or to visit friends in their home etc.

Developing new vaccines takes in general about 5 to 10 years, sometimes they are never found like HIV.

However covid-19 is not really a new vaccine starting research from zero. There are already corona-viruses known and there is already a guideline existing how to research into corona-viruses similar to covid-19. It is said research time because of prior existing experience with SARS, MERS etc. is shorten research time about for 3 years.

About experiences and side effects, Pfizer is said to be the best, very effective - however a headache is about transport and storage.
As far as I can see around 60 million people received already the first shot with Pfizer vaccine.

Are restriction justified? 50/50 question... About 5 days past New Year celebrations (nobody cared about covid-19 in Japan) infection rate was very high, and now about 3 weeks later thousands of patients are leaving hospitals...

It's difficult to ask people for more than one year to accept isolation all the time. You see best the result in UK, where large groups of people just don't care anymore about anything, ignoring and breaking any rule despite risking arrest and high fines.

[mattyman]

This idea that 'a vaccine is the only solution' has been ongoing. This idea is very prevelant in Europe. The UK is rolling out vaccines; the Pfizer one and the BioNtech but.. is still going out of the way to JUSTIFY restrictions, inventing new strains and tryng to scare the public (where's seasonal flu?).

It's encouraging the research into vaccines with the other coronaviruses and SARS 1 and MERS. There is that knowledge to trust.

I do not agree with coercion to take vaccines in any way, shape or form, it should be an individual CHOICE. There's a post talking about covid vaccines that I'm aware of and found.

RE working from home; remember the paid furlough schemes that were offered in the UK in March & April 2020? I think those people who're a) clinically-vulnerable and b) living with clinicaly-vulnerable (even if healthy but can spread) should be given the option of paid furloughs/sabbaticals of 3 months, reviewed after that period depending on transmission rates.

I'm not 'anti-vax' I'm against co-ercion.

[Wandering_Yeti]

Nevermind that the flu still exists and kills people every year and we HAVE an optional vaccine for that.