Massive US Bank Run + Investment Strategies

[Rock]

Some people play it like this - they go on record calling for crash, market decline, etc. each and every year till finally, wala, it happens. I could have done this say starting from 2002 and if I had continued for 7 years, I would finally hit the big one (end of 2008 into 2009). Then I would probably look like a genius to some if I had been vocal and public enough. The previous years would be conveniently swept under the rug.

BTW, I still remember your very erroneous and poorly timed 'overvalue call' on gold, bahahahaha!

As previously mentioned, I value gold based on extraction cost, and RE on rental income.

I work in the mining & energy extraction industry. When I see my clients laying people off, I'll look into buying.

Come-on my man. Yr. method is clearly out of touch with market reality. You totally ignored the liquidity side of the picture, the elephant in the room. And now you're claiming expertise. You sound just like a Wall St. stock analyst who FU.

What good is a cat that can't catch mice? Your valuation method would have great for those who wanna loose money. Get real and stick with what yr good at.

[momopi]

Come-on my man. Yr. method is clearly out of touch with market reality. You totally ignored the liquidity side of the picture, the elephant in the room. And now you're claiming expertise. You sound just like a Wall St. stock analyst who FU.
What good is a cat that can't catch mice? Your valuation method would have great for those who wanna loose money. Get real and stick with what yr good at.

No. I will continue to base my gold purchase decisions based on cost of extraction, processing, and retail premium. You're free to call my strategy antediluvian. As I've said previously, my purpose of buying gold is not to sell for a profit:

viewtopic.php?t=16329&postdays=0&postor ... d&start=90

I buy gold for:

1. Emergencies
2. Gift to relatives as wedding dowry
3. Gift to relatives for baby's 1st birthday


I tell people to hold a small % of their assets in gold, but I dislike telling folks to sell, because if the purpose is to hold for emergencies, then selling may defeat the purpose. At one time I may have thought "buy low sell high". Now I think "buy low and hold" on gold.

During the Chinese Civil War, inflation was so bad that you could sit for a bowl of noodles, and by the time you're done, the price had gone up. My grandfather on my father's side decided to take his family from Manchuria to Taiwan. He was able to pack some family jewels in gold and depart with his wife and kids. That gold paid for passage South, passage by boat to Taiwan, kept the family housed and fed (we were not military dependents and thus not eligible for military dependent housing), bought an investment in local construction company, and later a house on a plot of land in Taipei near NTU.

[Rock]

Come-on my man. Yr. method is clearly out of touch with market reality. You totally ignored the liquidity side of the picture, the elephant in the room. And now you're claiming expertise. You sound just like a Wall St. stock analyst who FU.
What good is a cat that can't catch mice? Your valuation method would have great for those who wanna loose money. Get real and stick with what yr good at.

No. I will continue to base my gold purchase decisions based on cost of extraction, processing, and retail premium. You're free to call my strategy antediluvian. As I've said previously, my purpose of buying gold is not to sell for a profit:

viewtopic.php?t=16329&postdays=0&postor ... d&start=90

I buy gold for:

1. Emergencies
2. Gift to relatives as wedding dowry
3. Gift to relatives for baby's 1st birthday


I tell people to hold a small % of their assets in gold, but I dislike telling folks to sell, because if the purpose is to hold for emergencies, then selling may defeat the purpose. At one time I may have thought "buy low sell high". Now I think "buy low and hold" on gold.

During the Chinese Civil War, inflation was so bad that you could sit for a bowl of noodles, and by the time you're done, the price had gone up. My grandfather on my father's side decided to take his family from Manchuria to Taiwan. He was able to pack some family jewels in gold and depart with his wife and kids. That gold paid for passage South, passage by boat to Taiwan, kept the family housed and fed (we were not military dependents and thus not eligible for military dependent housing), bought an investment in local construction company, and later a house on a plot of land in Taipei near NTU.

Hmm, let's see what you said over 4 years ago (October 3, 2008 on this very forum):

Don't chase tail ends. Buy low sell high.

Gold and silver are over-priced and you should wait until they drop before buying. Keep a small % of your assets in precious metals (1-2%?) but not everything.

I didn't call your strategy antediluvian (as if using such words makes you sound like u know wht u r talking about). I said your valuation methodology is way out of whack with market reality (what matters to anyone here who buys or sells) or in even simpler terms - its plain wrong.

You advised people on forum that gold was overpriced on October 3, 2008 and they should wait for it to drop before buying. Well its been over 4 years and the price is up over 100% from that level. The drop you predicted never happened. If u still think gold is overvalued at like $830 per ounce, why don't u sell me some of yours? I can even give u a 20% mark-up from your formula, lol.

Also just 1-2% of assets in precious metals is extremely low by most modern benchmarks. Anyone ignored your 'wait' advice but followed the second part would still have missed out on some great appreciation opportunities in US$ terms.

Your advice to Winston about leaving Taiwan is spot on. But your investment advice here sucked. Don't misadvise others. Do everyone a favor and stick with what you know.

[OutWest]

Come-on my man. Yr. method is clearly out of touch with market reality. You totally ignored the liquidity side of the picture, the elephant in the room. And now you're claiming expertise. You sound just like a Wall St. stock analyst who FU.
What good is a cat that can't catch mice? Your valuation method would have great for those who wanna loose money. Get real and stick with what yr good at.

No. I will continue to base my gold purchase decisions based on cost of extraction, processing, and retail premium. You're free to call my strategy antediluvian. As I've said previously, my purpose of buying gold is not to sell for a profit:

viewtopic.php?t=16329&postdays=0&postor ... d&start=90

I buy gold for:

1. Emergencies
2. Gift to relatives as wedding dowry
3. Gift to relatives for baby's 1st birthday


I tell people to hold a small % of their assets in gold, but I dislike telling folks to sell, because if the purpose is to hold for emergencies, then selling may defeat the purpose. At one time I may have thought "buy low sell high". Now I think "buy low and hold" on gold.

During the Chinese Civil War, inflation was so bad that you could sit for a bowl of noodles, and by the time you're done, the price had gone up. My grandfather on my father's side decided to take his family from Manchuria to Taiwan. He was able to pack some family jewels in gold and depart with his wife and kids. That gold paid for passage South, passage by boat to Taiwan, kept the family housed and fed (we were not military dependents and thus not eligible for military dependent housing), bought an investment in local construction company, and later a house on a plot of land in Taipei near NTU.

Hmm, let's see what you said over 4 years ago (October 3, 2008 on this very forum):

Don't chase tail ends. Buy low sell high.

Gold and silver are over-priced and you should wait until they drop before buying. Keep a small % of your assets in precious metals (1-2%?) but not everything.

I didn't call your strategy antediluvian (as if using such words makes you sound like u know wht u r talking about). I said your valuation methodology is way out of whack with market reality (what matters to anyone here who buys or sells) or in even simpler terms - its plain wrong.

You advised people on forum that gold was overpriced on October 3, 2008 and they should wait for it to drop before buying. Well its been over 4 years and the price is up over 100% from that level. The drop you predicted never happened. If u still think gold is overvalued at like $830 per ounce, why don't u sell me some of yours? I can even give u a 20% mark-up from your formula, lol.

Also just 1-2% of assets in precious metals is extremely low by most modern benchmarks. Anyone ignored your 'wait' advice but followed the second part would still have missed out on some great appreciation opportunities in US$ terms.

Your advice to Winston about leaving Taiwan is spot on. But your investment advice here sucked. Don't misadvise others. Do everyone a favor and stick with what you know.

Rock- I don't think you are going to get any offers to sell....also- the extraction cost of Gold is highly elastic and quite demand driven, as the cost of extraction varies so widely based on the quality of the ore reserve, and producers can react to market forces by mining low quality reserves when prices are high. I do not know what percentage of global gold sales are new gold vs the redistribution of existing stocks, but that is of course a factor. Over time, producers tend to reinforce the bears while world events have been supporting the bulls. Seems like your bulls have been on a winning streak the last few years...


Outwest

[Rock]

Come-on my man. Yr. method is clearly out of touch with market reality. You totally ignored the liquidity side of the picture, the elephant in the room. And now you're claiming expertise. You sound just like a Wall St. stock analyst who FU.
What good is a cat that can't catch mice? Your valuation method would have great for those who wanna loose money. Get real and stick with what yr good at.

No. I will continue to base my gold purchase decisions based on cost of extraction, processing, and retail premium. You're free to call my strategy antediluvian. As I've said previously, my purpose of buying gold is not to sell for a profit:

viewtopic.php?t=16329&postdays=0&postor ... d&start=90

I buy gold for:

1. Emergencies
2. Gift to relatives as wedding dowry
3. Gift to relatives for baby's 1st birthday


I tell people to hold a small % of their assets in gold, but I dislike telling folks to sell, because if the purpose is to hold for emergencies, then selling may defeat the purpose. At one time I may have thought "buy low sell high". Now I think "buy low and hold" on gold.

During the Chinese Civil War, inflation was so bad that you could sit for a bowl of noodles, and by the time you're done, the price had gone up. My grandfather on my father's side decided to take his family from Manchuria to Taiwan. He was able to pack some family jewels in gold and depart with his wife and kids. That gold paid for passage South, passage by boat to Taiwan, kept the family housed and fed (we were not military dependents and thus not eligible for military dependent housing), bought an investment in local construction company, and later a house on a plot of land in Taipei near NTU.

Hmm, let's see what you said over 4 years ago (October 3, 2008 on this very forum):

Don't chase tail ends. Buy low sell high.

Gold and silver are over-priced and you should wait until they drop before buying. Keep a small % of your assets in precious metals (1-2%?) but not everything.

I didn't call your strategy antediluvian (as if using such words makes you sound like u know wht u r talking about). I said your valuation methodology is way out of whack with market reality (what matters to anyone here who buys or sells) or in even simpler terms - its plain wrong.

You advised people on forum that gold was overpriced on October 3, 2008 and they should wait for it to drop before buying. Well its been over 4 years and the price is up over 100% from that level. The drop you predicted never happened. If u still think gold is overvalued at like $830 per ounce, why don't u sell me some of yours? I can even give u a 20% mark-up from your formula, lol.

Also just 1-2% of assets in precious metals is extremely low by most modern benchmarks. Anyone ignored your 'wait' advice but followed the second part would still have missed out on some great appreciation opportunities in US$ terms.

Your advice to Winston about leaving Taiwan is spot on. But your investment advice here sucked. Don't misadvise others. Do everyone a favor and stick with what you know.

Rock- I don't think you are going to get any offers to sell....also- the extraction cost of Gold is highly elastic and quite demand driven, as the cost of extraction varies so widely based on the quality of the ore reserve, and producers can react to market forces by mining low quality reserves when prices are high. I do not know what percentage of global gold sales are new gold vs the redistribution of existing stocks, but that is of course a factor. Over time, producers tend to reinforce the bears while world events have been supporting the bulls. Seems like your bulls have been on a winning streak the last few years...


Outwest

Well when market price rises significantly, it suddenly becomes economical to extract reserves which were previously too expensive and vice-versa. Bulls have been on winning streak for like over most of a decade now. But perhaps part of the reason is that we are pricing gold in dollars. If we had been using Aussie dollars, Swiss Francs, or say even silver, picture would have been significantly different.

[momopi]

You advised people on forum that gold was overpriced on October 3, 2008 and they should wait for it to drop before buying. Well its been over 4 years and the price is up over 100% from that level. The drop you predicted never happened. If u still think gold is overvalued at like $830 per ounce, why don't u sell me some of yours? I can even give u a 20% mark-up from your formula, lol.

No. As I've clearly stated, selling defeats of purpose of holding it for emergencies. You obviously buy gold for a different reason.

I tell people to buy and hold gold for:
1. An emergency that may never occur in their life time
2. Putting their money in gold and may never make a profit from it
3. Putting their money in gold and may never get to use it in their life time

And I will continue to make such advise to others, regardless of how you feel on this subject.

1. I advise people to buy and hold a small percentage of their assets in gold for emergencies.
2. I advise people to invest in RE that generate positive cash flow (or at least break-even on a 15y loan).
3. I do not advise people to speculate in individual stocks, commodities, precious metals, or flipping negative cashflow RE.

The advise above is obviously not intended for an audience of day traders, or contractors who buy fixer-upper homes.

[Rock]

You advised people on forum that gold was overpriced on October 3, 2008 and they should wait for it to drop before buying. Well its been over 4 years and the price is up over 100% from that level. The drop you predicted never happened. If u still think gold is overvalued at like $830 per ounce, why don't u sell me some of yours? I can even give u a 20% mark-up from your formula, lol.

No. As I've clearly stated, selling defeats of purpose of holding it for emergencies. You obviously buy gold for a different reason.

I tell people to buy and hold gold for:
1. An emergency that may never occur in their life time
2. Putting their money in gold and may never make a profit from it
3. Putting their money in gold and may never get to use it in their life time

And I will continue to make such advise to others, regardless of how you feel on this subject.

1. I advise people to buy and hold a small percentage of their assets in gold for emergencies.
2. I advise people to invest in RE that generate positive cash flow (or at least break-even on a 15y loan).
3. I do not advise people to speculate in individual stocks, commodities, precious metals, or flipping negative cashflow RE.

The advise above is obviously not intended for an audience of day traders, or contractors who buy fixer-upper homes.

Do you have a reading problem? This isn't about me. On October 3, 2008, years before I joined this forum, you wrote:

Don't chase tail ends. BUY LOW SELL HIGH.

GOLD AND SILVER ARE OVER-PRICED AND YOU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THEY DROP BEFORE BUYING. Keep a small % of your assets in precious metals (1-2%?) but not everything.

That advice is very simple and straightforward no matter what the context!!! Nothing to do with emergencies man. Come on and own up.

[momopi]

Do you have a reading problem? This isn't about me. On October 3, 2008, years before I joined this forum, you wrote:

Don't chase tail ends. BUY LOW SELL HIGH.

GOLD AND SILVER ARE OVER-PRICED AND YOU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THEY DROP BEFORE BUYING. Keep a small % of your assets in precious metals (1-2%?) but not everything.

That advice is very simple and straightforward no matter what the context!!! Nothing to do with emergencies man. Come on and own up.

No, you're the one who ignored this part from this very thread:

I tell people to hold a small % of their assets in gold, but I dislike telling folks to sell, because if the purpose is to hold for emergencies, then selling may defeat the purpose. At one time I may have thought "buy low sell high". Now I think "buy low and hold" on gold.

And this earlier post, addressed to you:
viewtopic.php?p=105910&highlight=gold+e ... ies#105910

1. I hold gold as a rabbit hole and thus I do not sell outside of emergencies.
<snip>
I advocate holding a small % of liquid assets in gold and silver as a rabbit hole. If your strategy is to buy and sell gold for a profit in the short term, then that's a different goal. My preference is investments that generate dividend and income over those that do not.

I've been advocating holding 1%-2% of assets in gold on this forum since 2007 (viewtopic.php?p=1049&highlight=gold#1049). In the ~6 years since, I came to the realization that if you're holding it for emergencies, then selling it would defeat that purpose. If it was my intent to tell people to use gold as a primary or major investment, then I wouldn't have said only 1%-2%. My investment strategy today is simple:

1. Invest in cash-flow positive residential real estate for the long term.
2. Keep 1%-2% of your assets in gold for emergencies. (buy low and hold, not sell)
3. You (the target audience) most likely already own mutual funds through 401(k) and IRA accounts.

In other words, buy and hold, buy and hold, buy and hold. Those who follow this strategy will make no profit on their gold. I repeat, no profit. There is no "sell high".

1. The RE investments are cash flow, and thus rising/falling RE prices should not impact you as much. You sit back and collect rent, let your property manager do the work.
2. The gold is held for emergencies and not intended for sale. Rising/falling gold prices should not keep you up at night.
3. Your 401(k) and IRA accounts will most likely be kept until your retirement age (or 59 & 1/2 or whatever). Leave it alone.


If you speculate in gold (or stocks or commodities) and made a bundle, good for you. That is not the financial advice I give to people. The kind of financial advice I give today seek monthly income, which can be put into savings toward buying the next investment property. Those who wish to follow my advice will make NO PROFIT on their gold holdings -- the gold is neither a trade, nor an investment, nor a hedge against inflation. It's simply money for emergencies and preservation of wealth.

If your head is still stuck on the 2008 thread, feel free to bang your head there and feel proud about your investment choices. It's always easier to look back and say "wow I hit the jackpot" or "damn I should have put my money on that". I don't like to play that game. What I want is that stack of rent checks in the mail, every month, month after month.

[zboy1]

All in all, every person will have a different investing strategy, so to say which one is right and which is wrong is kind of pointless, tbh. Even the pros can't agree (and they often get it wrong), so it's a waste of time to try to do so. I'm locking this thread.

[Winston]

Here's proof that a US bank run is currently underway. I'll be closing my account this week.

Massive US Bank Run
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-2 ... pport.html

What does it mean that FDIC is ending support? Aren't all US bank accounts FDIC insured for up to $100,000 in case of collapse? Has that changed? If so, why?

You should note though, that people have always predicted bank runs, even all throughout the 19th Century. It's nothing new.

How can you close your bank account? Aren't you in the Philippines?

[Winston]

All in all, every person will have a different investing strategy, so to say which one is right and which is wrong is kind of pointless, tbh. Even the pros can't agree (and they often get it wrong), so it's a waste of time to try to do so. I'm locking this thread.

No. Please don't lock threads. Doing so disrupts the free flow of discussion and information, and does not accomplish anything other than place limitations. Someone could have something important to add later on. You never know. Why put a cap on it?

We are only supposed to delete spammers and illegal content here, while preserving the constitutional libertarian right of free speech.

I just unlocked it. Are there any other threads that you or others have locked?

[Rock]

All in all, every person will have a different investing strategy, so to say which one is right and which is wrong is kind of pointless, tbh. Even the pros can't agree (and they often get it wrong), so it's a waste of time to try to do so. I'm locking this thread.

No. Please don't lock threads. Doing so disrupts the free flow of discussion and information, and does not accomplish anything other than place limitations. Someone could have something important to add later on. You never know. Why put a cap on it?

We are only supposed to delete spammers and illegal content here, while preserving the constitutional libertarian right of free speech.

I just unlocked it. Are there any other threads that you or others have locked?

Hallelujah Winston. No thread locking or banning outside of obvious spammers and trolls. That's wht makes yr. forum different from all the others. Glad u have the leadership to over-ride your mods when needed, even if they don't like it.

[Rock]

No, you're the one who ignored this part from this very thread:

I tell people to hold a small % of their assets in gold, but I dislike telling folks to sell, because if the purpose is to hold for emergencies, then selling may defeat the purpose. At one time I may have thought "buy low sell high". Now I think "buy low and hold" on gold.

Umm, I think I addressed it quite specifically just yesterday. Do you have a reading problem?

Also just 1-2% of assets in precious metals is extremely low by most modern benchmarks. Anyone ignored your 'wait' advice but followed the second part would still have missed out on some great appreciation opportunities in US$ terms.

[terminator]

Well it's a few days later and nothing much has happened in the banking industry. So what are you going to do with that money you've withdrawn? Put it in the mattress?

TPRB won't let anything major happen in the USA until everyone is disarmed - this will at least take a few years and it will double the prison population. Just relax and enjoy life for now. Nothing big will happen like "Martial Law" yet (and when it does it will be called another name).

[Rock]

All in all, every person will have a different investing strategy, so to say which one is right and which is wrong is kind of pointless, tbh. Even the pros can't agree (and they often get it wrong), so it's a waste of time to try to do so. I'm locking this thread.

Most of the so-called pros aren't pros at all if you use absolute or bench-marked performance as a gauge over an extended period.

Doctors treat diseases and extend people's lives. Engineers design and create real things that people use. But most so-called investment professionals just throw around a lot of big words, publish fancy looking reports, and are full of themselves. But when it comes to actual investing, they are usually no better than taxi drivers or housewives, often worse. Doctors and engineers are worthy of the title professional. Most Wall Streeters and the likes are closer to sophisticated scam artists.