How do drivers get away with many near misses everyday?

[Winston]

"I've never understood the human propensity to pilot vehicles at unsafe velocities."
- Commander Data to Captain Picard in Star Trek Nemesis

I have a puzzling question that I asked Rock about recently while I was driving with him.

How do drivers get away with so many near misses or close calls with hitting other vehicles? Why aren't there more car accidents than there are already?

In Asian cities, many drivers do high risk maneuvers that are technically very dangerous with a small margin of error. Yet they get away with it somehow, even if they do it everyday. It's surprising that there aren't more accidents than there already are. How do so many big city drivers get away with it everyday, such as cab drivers and bus drivers?

Theoretically, you'd think that so many near misses with a small margin of error would result in a certain percentage of crashes. So for example, if a driver had 10 near misses, one out of 10 of them should result in a crash or accident, based on the law of averages, you'd think. But many experienced drivers have hundreds or thousands of near misses and yet never have an accident. How can that be?

Theoretically, the number of accidents should be 10x greater than what it is now.

For example, many scooters and motorcycles in Taiwan drive very dangerously. They come out of nowhere at high speeds. Some will zoom past a car just pulling out or changing lanes. All it takes is for one driver to forget to check the lane he's turning into, and he would knock the scooter over, which could kill the people on the scooter or put them in serious condition. And if the scooter is coming around the corner, then the car pulling out may not even see the scooter coming. Also, at night it's harder to judge the distance of another vehicle based on its headlight alone, so misjudgments in distance are more likely. Even worse, in Taiwan, for some reason, many scooters drive at night with NO HEADLIGHTS, which is very foolish. Yet somehow they get away with it. I was told that some scooter drivers simply forget to turn on their headlights, while others are trying to save gas, believing that the city lights are enough for them to navigate in.

Gee, don't these scooter drivers who drive with no headlights consider that cars might not see them and knock them over while pulling out or making turns in front of them? I don't get it. Do some people hate their lives so much that they subconsciously take reckless risks in the hopes of ending their lives? I know that the scooter fatality rate in Taiwan is high, but theoretically it should be much higher, so why isn't it?

I don't get how so many near misses and close calls don't result in a lot more accidents. How do many drivers get away with it everyday? Doesn't the small margin of error of near misses guarantee that a certain percentage of them are going to result in crashes? If so, how do so many drivers get away with many near misses everyday with no crashes?

As for me, I'm a defensive driver who drives safely and tries to leave a wide margin of error - in other words I leave space between me and other vehicles. I even prefer driving slower if it is safer, but not too slow, more like a reasonable pace. The way I drive is very logical. I calculate risk and try to leave a wider margin of error than most people do, so that mistakes can be reacted to more easily, all of which minimizes risk.

To me, the way I drive is totally logical. Driving with many vehicles around is also a little bit of a stressful experience. So I don't understand how so many people can drive dangerously all the time, with no fear or anxiety, and yet have no accidents? I noticed this in the Philippines especially. How do so many drivers experience no stress while driving, even with many near misses? Can someone explain?

Many drivers even seem to be changing lanes on the road or freeway without even turning their head to check the other lane, so I don't get how they never hit other vehicles.

Rock told me that driving is like an art, not just a skill, so that a talented natural driver does not use logic or calculations or thinks about "margins of error" while driving. Instead, he is confident that he will not hit other vehicles, even while performing risky maneuvers. He does not think about risk, calculation, logic, safety or margin of error. Instead, the vehicle is like his body and he simply KNOWS he will not hit another vehicle. I guess he may be right. I have heard professional drivers tell me that they are 100 percent sure they will not have an accident while driving, because they simply "know" they won't. I don't know how they can be 100 percent sure of that, but for some reason, they say that.

Rock also said that the reason I have to use logic and risk calculation to drive, while others don't, is because people like me may not have good spatial perception and so we have to rely on other senses and methods to drive safely? Maybe since I'm a deep thinker and introvert, I'm not as well attuned to practical things, such as spatial perception between moving objects? However, I grew up being good at video games, so that helps give me quick reflexes in reacting to situations.

But still, I don't get how all this can be logically possible. How can so many people take so many risks on the road everyday with no accidents? Can anyone explain?

[momopi]

If you parked your car in a small tight space or garage every day, backing into it may become a simple, routine & daily task. A visitor may comment "how could you park in such tight spot?"

[polya]

"I've never understood the human propensity to pilot vehicles at unsafe velocities."
- Commander Data to Captain Picard in Star Trek Nemesis

I have a puzzling question that I asked Rock about recently while I was driving with him.

How do drivers get away with so many near misses or close calls with hitting other vehicles? Why aren't there more car accidents than there are already?.........

But still, I don't get how all this can be logically possible. How can so many people take so many risks on the road everyday with no accidents? Can anyone explain?

I think other drivers just jam on their brakes and take defensive action. I sure don't just let accidents happen and I avoid other drivers.

[Winston]

I have another question. How is it that most drivers don't seem to check the other lane when changing lanes? Obviously, if you change lanes on the road without looking, you will often collide with other vehicles. It's a no brainer.

So how do most drivers seem to barely look before changing lanes and get away with it? Are they looking so fast, perhaps a fraction of a second, that I don't notice? If so, are they really checking the rear and side mirrors and turning to look at the blind spot next to their vehicle (by the book), all in a fraction of a second? How can a driver check two points in a split second without turning his head? Most drivers I've seen are somehow able to do this. What is their secret?

Sorry if this sounds like a dumb question. I just don't get it.

[Winston]

Here is Larry Elterman's take on this question:

You know Winston, its a very good question. In fact, i have had almost the exact same thought process as you. Almost exactly. And like you it puzzles me. I think there must be something else going on that we are not accounting for.

Let me give you another example which while not exactly the same, is similar.

I once said to my brother ,how is it that in close athletic competitions between two oppoponents where one is famous and known for clutch play, and the other is not, the one that is known will almost always win.

For example, if you know tennis consider somebody like federer or rafiel nadal. Lots of times they have close matches with lesser known players but 95 percent of the time they prevail. You would think if the match is close near the very end, by luck, 20 percent of the time the lesser player would get the break and win, but it never seems to happen. A lot of time the better player seems to get incredible breaks like balls that hit the net and go over, or shots they hit that land on the line, and you ask how can they do that, how is it possible.

When i asked my brother, who by the way is a mathetician and very logical, his answer was, i know, it makes no sense, there is something else going on besides straight probability.

and i think thats the answer. We are only so smart and can not account for everything. There may be something else going on, some methology or sixth sense we are not accounting for. Thats my only explanation. I see some things that kids do on motorcycles and i think to myself, well, that was crazy, there was probably a one in one hundred chance he could have had an accident. if you do the math, and ten times a day you do something stupid, for 365 days a year, mathetically its like 99.9 percent they will get in a serious accident. but they amost always seem to get away with it. Its amazing. but of course they dont always get away with it. Witness the following please:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GnDkfXD8Dc

couple of more things.

I know some basic probablilty theory, so let me use it below

Lets give an concrete probalistic example. Suppose a teenager does a really stupid move. Lets say there was a only a 1 in 500 chance that he would have an accident as a result. In other words the chances are 99.8 percent he will get away with it.

Now suppose he does this ten times a day for a ryear, thats, 3650 stupid moves.

Mathematically the chance that he will get away with all 3650 stupid moves is

(.998) ** 3650 (.998 to the 3650 power)

This equals .00067. This is the chance he will get away with it. The chance he will have an accident is

1-.00067 = .99933 or 99.93 percent change he will have a serious accident.

yet, in real life probably only one out of 100 of those stupid teenagers will die or have very serious accident.

So either the stupid move is not as dangerous as we think it is, or there is something else going on.

Maybe the stupid move is really not that dangerous, but we being logical thiniking people only percieve it as being dangerous when really it is not so dangerous.

perception of danger is different than danger. people are affraid of sharks but only about ten people world wide die from sharks.

People are not affraid of getting into a car, buta million a year die in car accidents world wide. So there is a disconnect between reality and perception.

if you want to use my answers to your letter in your posts, feel free.

[Winston]

I have another theory why accidents and collisions aren't as high as they should be. Perhaps our survival instinct heightens our sixth sense to anticipate dangers before they occur? That seems very likely and reasonable. This would be one of the intangible factors that explain why logic doesn't play out as it should.

Btw, don't you guys hate it when you are driving in crowded cities, and it feels like everything is an obstacle? For example, if you are in the right lane, you often have to veer to the left lane, because right lanes are often blocked up by parked cars that take up the whole right lane. But if you are in the left lane, then some dufus always tries to make a left turn and hold you up, disallowing you from going through a green light, but you can't pass him up on the right either, because cars and scooters are swooshing by you on your right side. So you are stuck behind the driver trying to make a left turn, and you can't pass him up, all of which causes you to miss the green light so that you have to wait at another red stop light. Thus either way, whether you are in the right or left lane, you seem to lose. Doesn't that suck? I hate that. It's so frustrating.

[Winston]

What I hate the most is when I am on winding mountainous roads, where you can barely see what lies ahead in front of you due to the twists and turns, and yet there is always some idiot trying to pass you up even on double solid lines when you cannot see very far in front of you. Aren't they afraid of a head on collision? WTF is going on in their heads? I especially hate it when they are coming from the other side, in which case, they are risking a head on collision with YOU by passing up another vehicle unsafely! Then you have no choice but to pull over to the curb, in case he doesn't pass in time! It's crazy! What kind of a dufus would risk a head on collision like that?! WTF?!

[Falcon]

Haven't you heard about all the Taiwanese Aborigines dying prematurely because of motorcycle accidents?

[patrick]

I read somewhere that in Cambodia and Loas motorcycle accidents are the nr 1 cause of death for young men. Samen goes for Dubai, but with cars. There must be other countries as well.

[Winston]

My complaints about driving in Taiwan. Any suggestions?

Taiwan cities are bad for me. They are full of stress, assholes, traffic and cement, all of which are NOT conducive to spirituality, but instead are all about commercialism, consumerism and work work work work work. Very heartless and soulless. Living under all that is very draining, even if it is filled with modern conveniences.

Also, Taiwanese cities aren't designed for cars to park in, only for scooters, and this includes small cities too, like Chiayi, not just big ones. But if you ride a scooter, you take a big risk because one accident could end your life or put you in critical condition. So in other words, driving in Taiwan puts you between a rock and hard place. It's also dangerous making turns in a car, because every time you do, you have to carefully check for scooters driving alongside you, which are everywhere like ants, lest you knock them over. What happens if you forget to look just once...? Sheesh.

Moreover, on some busy roads, when swarms of scooters are passing next to you, you can't see clearly to be 100 percent sure that it's safe to turn and go through them. That happened to me once, and the cars behind me honked and yelled at me. But what can I do? I can't just cut through a swarm of scooters, because I can't be completely sure that it would be safe with so many scooters to look out for that are so close by with such a slim margin of error! Yet if I don't, the cars behind me get pissed. Sheesh. How do I win? Again, I am between a rock and hard place.